Open Mineral attended the copper industry gathering and CRU World Copper Conference in Santiago this week, finding a market abuzz with M&A chatter and adjusting to an inflection in copper concentrate spot terms. The cessation in noisy mine disruptions combined with a raft of smelter maintenance shutdowns to shift the concs market into oversupply, with smelters said to be hanging back still and TC/RCs confirmed to be moving back up again. A long second quarter market is the general consensus, with more balance expected for the second half.
In the copper cathodes market, demand was said to be holding up in most regions with US building wire consumption and European green deal investment projects supporting conditions in the western world, while from China we heard mixed reports. Certainly the cathode premiums in Shanghai are at weak levels considering we are in peak season, sub-$40/t, and some players reported low utilisation rates at medium and small consumers due to the pressure of increased financing costs. Another factor which is rising in prominence (and hurting CIF Shanghai premiums) is the falling demand for cathode imports as China’s own smelting and refining base continues to ramp up.
Price expectations were varied, with several participants hewing closer to current levels for the balance of the year; but some significant voices calling for copper to advance beyond $10,000/t. Ultimately most acknowledge that copper price direction is predominantly wedded to the inverse of US dollar strength or weakness, and fundamentals are this year set to play a secondary role.
CESCO Copper Takeaways
19 November 2025